McIlroy ready to take fight back to Rahm and Scheffler

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – Scottie Scheffler returned to world No.1 with his win at the WM Phoenix Open last week, but he has his hands full trying to keep it at The Riviera Country Club.

Scheffler was impressive as he held off Jon Rahm and Nick Taylor at TPC Scottsdale to take top spot with multiple time TOUR winners Justin Thomas and Jason Day and Jordan Spieth among those also inside the top six.

Welcome to the new PGA TOUR where designated events bring the top stars together more often but still afford the likes of Taylor the opportunity to steal the limelight for themselves.

Once again we have a cavalcade of stars on show in Los Angeles with a surprise headliner in tournament host Tiger Woods. Woods is unlikely to contend for his first win at Riviera – the place it all started for him as a 16-year-old – but he certainly adds to the entertainment.

Scheffler has – like last week – given up top spots on the betting boards to Rahm and McIlroy. Rahm is +750 to win with BetMGM sportsbook, with McIlroy +900 and Scheffler at +1000.

“Of course I care about it. I think it's a really cool thing to be ranked No. 1 in whatever you do, but I think it just goes to show the level of depth and the level of talent that's out here,” McIlroy said about losing top status in the world to Scheffler following a T32 in Phoenix.

“I literally have one average week, it wasn't even a bad week, just an average week, and there's always someone waiting not wings to overtake you or to come and try to take that mantle from you.”

If we dive quickly into their history at Riviera, we see Rahm had a T9 on debut in 2019 and since has finished T17, T5 and T21 last year.

McIlroy has threatened to win at Riviera before. In six trips he has five top 20s, three are top 10s and two top fives.

Scheffler missed the cut on debut at Riviera in 2018 as an amateur but over the last three seasons has improved each time (T30-T20-T7).

There is reason to believe the top of the leaderboard will resemble something like we saw in Phoenix – not necessarily the same players – but many recognizable names along with a spoiler or two.

I expect McIlroy to be one of the big names this time around. The three-time FedExCup champion knows he can regain supremacy with a win this week and while he hasn’t played enough rounds to be officially ranked statistically on TOUR yet this season, he is trending in the right direction in key stats.

Six of the last seven winners at Riviera were inside the top six of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. McIlroy trends towards being second on TOUR. He also trends at 10th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green which again, is paramount this week. Players need to get up and down from around the greens to stay in the mix.

There is less emphasis on driving accuracy at Riviera but still a big advantage with driving distance. McIlroy trends towards leading the TOUR in this metric.

And then there is the facts put forth by Jason Sobel from The Action Network. Since the start of last year both Scheffler’s and Rahm’s five wins around the world came after an off week. But on the nine occasions McIlroy played in back-to-back weeks, he won twice. All three played last week, but McIlroy was not in the stress of contention. It points to him knocking off some rust ready for this week’s assault.

Look for Rahm, and Justin Thomas (+1400), to push McIlroy at the top and don’t sleep on the pair of Patrick Cantlay (+2500) and Collin Morikawa (+2200) who unexpectedly missed the cut in Phoenix. Both have the game for Riviera and are a little more rested than others.

And we can’t talk about a California event without mentioning the California king Max Homa (+2000). He’s now claimed four of his six TOUR wins in the state after recently taking out the Farmers Insurance Open. The champion at Riviera two years ago could easily do it again.

Now when looking for a mid-tier sleeper one should keep close tabs on two-time winner at The Genesis Invitational in Adam Scott (+5500). With a win and two other top seven finishes in his last four Riviera starts the Australian is a value pick down the boards.

His lone hiccup was a delay for caddie Steve Williams coming out of cyclone damaged New Zealand, but the pair are a well-oiled machine and Williams already knows Riviera well.

“I love coming back to Riviera. It's my favorite stop on TOUR every year and good feelings for me around this place, especially out on the golf course,” Scott said. “Steve caddied for me for two events in Australia at the back end of last year… and we slipped back into the rhythm really quickly and we had a good couple of weeks and I expect that to happen out here as well.”

So who, if it’s not Nick Taylor (+10000) himself, will take Taylor’s longshot role this week?

As Rob Bolton pointed out in his Sleepers article, it might be time to keep an eye on Jhonattan Vegas (+15000) who after returning from a shoulder issue has two top 25s recently. He currently ranks second on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and has two top 15s at Riviera in the past.

Another to watch out for is Wyndham Clark (+8000) who hits the ball a long way and has a couple of top 10s of late. He’s had two top 20 efforts at Riv in the past.

And Woods you ask? Let’s just be happy we get to watch him play this week!