Golfbet Insider: The Genesis Invitational

You’ve had a lot hurled at ya lately. The app has been strong, but that learning curve barely was set before the website turned over on the Tuesday of the WM Phoenix Open.

No worries, though, gang, you’ll have it purrin’ like a Tiger before ya know it. In fact, you’re probably already sailing along with the cleaner visuals and stupid-fast download speeds. It takes longer to turn a page in a book. Raising a glass to the techs!

Part of your retraining has been the fact that this space now is Golfbet Insider. Draws and Fades is a new franchise for in-tournament action. My focus here has transitioned to notables omitted from the Power Rankings and Sleepers, but with a boom extended into BetMGM’s markets. It started with a smattering of selections for the WM, the results of all can be reviewed in the Recap at the bottom of this page.

If you’re a loyalist, you’re aware that my Rookie Ranking has been shifted to Twitter permanently. It’s also where I’m fulfilling the request to monitor Notable Non-members Keita Nakajima headlines that class at The Genesis Invitational. All previous tweets are linked via dedicated threads, so cycle through as needed

If you’re in search of Qualifiers, the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle and Medical Extensions, all are parked on the Golfbet news hub , but you can jump to each via the links in the paragraphs that immediately follow this one. As always, the advice is to bookmark, but hit me on the Twitter if you can’t find anything at any time. DMs always are open.

Qualifiers now includes all golfers officially exempt into the U.S. Open. We’re awaiting only confirmations from the PGA of America and the R&A for the PGA Championship and The Open Championship, respectively.

As previously detailed during the week of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, most KFT grads would not be pegging it in the last two stops of the West Coast Swing before their category reorders for the second time this season. So, and as always, when the field for The Honda Classic is released on Friday, Feb. 17, there likely will be a couple of guys in the category showing as exempt into the Honda who will not be when the category is reordered at the conclusion of the Genesis. This is an annual rite of passage for season-long leagues. It’s the only reorder of the season that impacts a field after it publishes.

Medical Extensions isn’t as much of a narrative this season as it has been most of the time. J.B. Holmes is the only golfer on a medical in the field at Riviera, but that’s because he’s a former winner (2019). Currently fully exempt members like Lanto Griffin (microdiscectomy) and C.T. Pan (wrist) are equipped with medicals in 2024, if necessary, but there isn’t much fantasy value for the 2022-23 class. Note that there is a scroll to slide the columns to view FedExCup points needed to achieve conditional status as a safety net.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Sam Burns (+115 = Top 20) … Despite what you might hear and what you may even have thought yourself, there’s no such thing as being due. All that is is a comfortable encapsulation of one’s expectations based on ability that has been quiet. Sure, a result that fulfills the rhetoric might seem like it’s a real thing, but that’s only a coincidence. (There’s a parable in there somewhere.) Bottom line, when you win thrice in a season, and when you ascend on a trajectory that, well, has fulfilled the rhetoric, suddenly there’s shock and awe that it’s a failure to go this long without a top-five finish, much less a victory. It’s been eight months since his last, but he’s been a top-15 machine, so if this is his floor, take the positive kickback for a Top 20 at Riviera and multiple the units. He finished third here in 2021, and that included a 3-over 74 in the third round.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Feb. 15, at 3:30 p.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Tiger Woods (+160 = Make the Cut) … Sure, why not? He’s the only golfer of 27 on the board for this prop at plus value. That alone is reason enough for the newest investors to have a taste of the 82-time PGA TOUR winner. You’ll always remember the experience. Most of all, he isn’t appearing for ceremonial purposes. He doesn’t show up just to play and have a few yuks with the boys. He’s there to compete. Making the cut and not contending is failure in his calculus, but all our card cares about is the result.

Will Zalatoris (+240 = Miss the Cut) … This is a smart play if you want to tiptoe back in conservatively for plus value. He sat out last week’s WM Phoenix Open despite initially planning to play it. However, as one of the 23 Player Impact Program winners, he’s promised to commit to the designated events for which he is eligible. So, the short story is that he’s burned his allotted DNP. Unless he’s forced into another, the reason for last week’s is irrelevant. That said, all variables are on the table for our considerations. If his back is still talking to him – and we can’t rule out that it isn’t – the cooler air at Riviera won’t be doing him any favors. It’s a bonus for season-long investors if he cashes, but expectations must be tempered.

Sungjae Im (+300 = Miss the Cut) … He’s only +105 for a Top 20, but he’s been unable to avoid the big number at Riviera where he’s just 1-for-3 with a T33 last year. So, BetMGM needs to be responsible not to be exposed, while Riviera essentially is undefeated as it concerns sizing up against the South Korean talent who has been playing exceptionally well for most of 2023. Until Im proves otherwise, I’m expecting the course to prevail, and there’s just not enough value to toss even a fraction of a unit into diluted hope.

Tom Kim (+250 = Top Korean) … At +175, Im is the favorite among his countrymen, but I like the fact that Kim is a first-timer. No scar tissue for a guy who hasn’t presented any weaknesses at the tender age of 20, including at most of the sites where he’s debuted.

Hideki Matsuyama (-160 = Top 40) … It’s not sexy but there’s no sense forcing it for a guy who’s been inconsistent for a far too long to wonder if it’s just a blip. Of course, there’s always the concern that he’ll withdraw after R1, so that I’m advising anything positive is a tip of the visor. He’s (-350) to make the cut, but that’s all but a foregone conclusion as it concerns his worst effort, so lean into a result that also essentially should be a foregone conclusion when he survives. All six of his paydays in eight tries at Riviera are top 40s.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Tommy Fleetwood (+100 = Top 40)

Rickie Fowler (+190 = Top 20)

Dylan Frittelli (-105 = Top South African)

James Hahn (+190 = Top 40)

Matt Kuchar (+140 = Top 40)

Adrian Meronk (+120 = Top 40)

Keith Mitchell (-110 = Top 40)

Alex Noren (-120 = Top 40)

Sam Ryder (+130 = Top 40)

Nick Taylor (+110 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Justin Suh … Rested an injured shoulder that forced him out of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am during his first round. After opening his first season as a PGA TOUR member 0-for-3, he had cashed in seven consecutive starts through a T20 at Torrey Pines. Now making his debut at Riviera. It’s a bonus for full-season investors, but no one else needs to take the plunge given the depth of the field.

NOTABLE WDs

Maverick McNealy … Consecutive mid-tournament withdrawals due to an injured left shoulder precipitated this week’s early WD. Just like last week when wasn’t taking a spot from an alternate due to the construct of the field, the same phenomenon applies at Riviera, so that he’s already decided not to give it a go in the next designated event on a track where he finished T7 last year is telling. Continue to hold your breath.

Chris Kirk … He was hanging with a Collin Morikawa-esque pace with a solo third at Waialae and a T3 at PGA West. To wit, both missed the cut at TPC Scottsdale, but Morikawa has remained committed to the Genesis. Kirk hasn’t appeared here since 2016, so it’s surprising only in the context that he’s opted out of a designated event, not the track on which it’s contested.

Webb Simpson … Man, time flies. He should have been an automatic in conversations to contend at TPC Scottsdale, but we barely knew that he was there. The struggle has been real for the 37-year-old who is, gulp, 198th in the FedExCup despite six starts this season. In a video game, he’d be a go-to at Riviera, but his hiatus will extend into a sixth edition this year.

Brendan Steele … After failing to deliver on his slot as a Sleeper for the WM Phoenix Open (see Recap below), we’re not going to miss him in his home state of California. Kinda hard to believe that he’ll turn 40 on the eve of the Masters.

Davis Riley … He’s taking a beat after a 1-for-4 stretch with just a T65 at PGA West. It’s odd for a PGA TOUR sophomore to sit this one out, but it’s still about the long-term. He’s 107th in the FedExCup and he’ll be back on bermuda regularly soon enough.

RECAP – WM Phoenix Open

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result

1 Rory McIlroy T32

2 Jon Rahm 3rd

3 Collin Morikawa MC

4 Xander Schauffele T10

5 Scottie Scheffler Win

6 Patrick Cantlay MC

7 Max Homa T39

8 Tony Finau T14

9 Sungjae Im T6

10 Hideki Matsuyama T29

11 Justin Thomas 4th

12 Tom Kim T50

13 Billy Horschel T32

14 Sahith Theegala T39

15 Matt Fitzpatrick T29

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result

Hayden Buckley (+500 = Top 20) T29

Taylor Montgomery (+180 = Top 20) MC

J.T. Poston (+300 = Top 20) MC

Brendan Steele (+300 = Top 20) MC

Wyndham Clark T10

GOLFBET INSIDER

Golfer (recommended bet) Result

Wild Card: Viktor Hovland (+125 = Top 20) T42

Also Starring: Jordan Spieth (+188 = Miss the Cut) T6

Also Starring: Jason Day (+180 = Top 20) 5th

Also Starring: Cameron Young (+333 = Miss the Cut) 64th

Also Starring: Brian Harman (+220 = Top 20) T42

Also Starring: Alex Noren (+375 = Top 10) MC

Also Starring: J.J. Spaun (+110 = Top 40) MC

Tap-In: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+150 = Top 40) MC

Tap-In: Keegan Bradley (+220 = Top 20) T20

Tap-In: Corey Conners (+225 = Top Canadian) T50 (third-best among Canadians)

Tap-In: Rickie Fowler (-125 = Top 40) T10

Tap-In: Tyrrell Hatton (+180 = Top 20) T6

Tap-In: Tom Hoge (-110 = Top 40 MC

Tap-In: Si Woo Kim (-110 = Top 40) T23

Tap-In: Chris Kirk (+275 = Top 20) MC

Tap-In: Denny McCarthy (+110 = Top 40) MC

Tap-In: Seamus Power (+250 = Top 20) T20

Tap-In: Andrew Putnam (+125 = Top 40) MC

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