Peter Malnati leads, but odds continue to favor Keith Mitchell at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

There’s an interesting phenomenon afoot at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and it doesn’t have to do with the gusty winds that have the tournament eyeing a Monday finish.

Three days have passed at Pebble, although the third was interrupted by some big breezes buffeting the Monterey Peninsula. Each of those three days have featured a different name atop the leaderboard: Hank Lebioda after the first round, Kurt Kitayama after Round 2 and now Peter Malnati, who will sleep on a two-shot cushion as he returns Sunday morning to complete the last six holes of his third round.

But despite that revolving door at the top, oddsmakers have listed the same player as the overnight betting favorite for three straight days despite the fact that he has yet to sleep on a lead: Keith Mitchell.

It’s a testament to the extra variables in play this week with a three-course rotation in use, plus the credit given to Mitchell for a 5-under 67 Thursday at Spyglass Hill – by far the hardest track of the trio. He has eight holes left in his third round at the host course, but oddsmakers at BetMGM continue to like his chances of getting TOUR win No. 2 this week on the California coast.

Updated odds to win, via BetMGM (Round 3 play to resume at 11 a.m. ET Sunday):

+350: Keith Mitchell

+400: Peter Malnati

+500: Viktor Hovland

+700: Joseph Bramlett

+800: Kurt Kitayama

+1800: Justin Rose

+2000: Beau Hossler

+2500: Hank Lebioda

+3000: Denny McCarthy

From a handicapping perspective, it’s hard to think of a situation with more variables to factor. Players have varying holes left in their third round, being played at separate courses. Some will have a 20-something hole day at Pebble Beach, while others will wrap their rounds elsewhere and quickly shuttle back to the host course to begin the final round. All signs point to the tournament winner not lifting the trophy until Monday morning.

But sometimes a few extra variables can help to lift prices if you know which ones matter most. Without further ado…

Draws

Make no mistake, Malnati caught a huge break when tournament officials decided (understandably) to halt play for the day because of strong winds. For a brief window Saturday afternoon the veteran was staring at playing a particularly exposed portion of Pebble Beach in some wild winds. Conditions should be considerably easier Sunday morning, where Malnati will start with an 18-footer for birdie on fresh greens that could stretch his lead to three shots. Malnati is typically a hit-or-miss prospect – he opened this week at lofty +20000 odds and was +6600 after two rounds before catching fire Saturday at Pebble Beach. But this is the type of course (and event) where his targeted game can thrive, even when the wind kicks up a bit. Look, he’s by no means a lock to win this thing. But his chances were boosted considerably when the decision was made that he would face Nos. 4-9 at Pebble after a light breakfast Sunday instead of into the teeth of the gale Saturday afternoon.

If looking to grab a piece of a longshot for the final stretch, you could do worse than the former Stanford product who sits four shots back and +4000 with 23 holes to go. Wu has the logistical advantage of playing all of his remaining golf at the host course, and while he faces a relatively demanding stretch in the morning (Nos. 5-9) his odds entering the final round will be a fraction of the current offering if he’s able to grab a couple birdies across those holes. Wu will almost certainly be chasing Sunday (and into Monday), but he hit 17 of 18 GIR Friday at Monterey Peninsula and rattled off four birdies in his first eight Saturday at Pebble. A late double bogey derailed his momentum and ballooned his in-play price, but the game is there to get it done against a leaderboard that doesn’t boast a clear front-runner.

Fades

Maybe the oddsmakers are just smarter than me. It’s entirely possible (OK, probable). But I’m just not seeing Mitchell as the player to beat from this particular leaderboard. Mitchell, like Malnati, has won before on TOUR – a relatively rare distinction among the leaders at this point and potentially a factor that is cutting into the odds for both players. But Mitchell was a bit of a scrambling man Saturday at Pebble, recording one-putts on eight of his first nine greens. That’s in part due to the small targets at the host course, but it also shows that Mitchell leaned heavily on his short game to remain in the mix. That’s tough to rely on indefinitely – particularly in a situation where he’s favored but not leading. I could certainly see Mitchell lifting the trophy, but I’m not looking to back him at such a short number.

Hossler was entirely off the radar at the halfway point, listed at +20000 heading to the hardest of the three courses. He clearly found something Saturday at Spyglass Hill, though, rolling in birdies on seven of his first 14 holes to rocket up the standings in improbable fashion. Unlike Malnati, the break in action may have cooled his heater – one that had the edge taken off considerably by a double bogey on No. 6, his last completed hole of the day. Hossler’s rally was still remarkable, lopping a zero off his odds as he dropped down to +2000. But he’s still looking for his maiden TOUR win, something that is typically hard to find at this event, and unlike the top three leaders he’ll deal with some logistical hurdles by splitting his Sunday across two different golf courses. He’s still facing a four-shot deficit, plus a few closing holes at tricky Spyglass before returning to the host course where he shot an uninspiring, even-par 72 on Friday.

*Odds sourced from BetMGM at 7:00p.m. ET Saturday

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