Kurt Kitayama leads, but rotation matters at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The power of the three-course rotation in play for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is clearly evident when comparing the tournament leaderboard to the latest odds.

Even on a crowded leaderboard, the likes of which we have through 36 holes on the Monterey Peninsula, typically oddsmakers defer to an outright leader. Not so this week, as Kurt Kitayama holds a slim one-shot advantage at the halfway point as he looks to win on the PGA TOUR for the first time.

Kitayama isn’t favored – he’s not even solo second in the eyes of oddsmakers. His standing, at +900 along with four others and behind betting favorite Keith Mitchell (+800), is a testament to what lies ahead tomorrow for him: Spyglass Hill, by far the hardest of the three courses in play this week.

Updated odds after Round 2, via BETMGM:

+800: Keith Mitchell

+900: Kurt Kitayama, Scott Stallings, Seamus Power, Viktor Hovland

+1100: Justin Rose

+1200: Joseph Bramlett

+1400: Brandon Wu

+1600: Denny McCarthy

+2500: Jordan Spieth, Satoshi Kodaira

Kitayama torched the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Thursday and added two more shots to par Friday at Pebble Beach, where he’ll look to return for Sunday’s final round. But Spyglass has been a menace all week, especially when the weather has conspired against players, and it won’t be easy sledding for him (and others) tomorrow.

Instead, the odds are tilted toward players that have Pebble on deck or, even better, Monterey. That explains Mitchell’s status as favorite, as he was low man on the board Thursday at Spyglass and now gets to feast on a course that traditionally plays as the easiest of the rotation.

The host course will serve as the equalizer for Sunday’s finale, but before then we have another round of monitoring a three-course rotation on a day when winds could gust to 25 MPH in the afternoon. None of the three coastal layouts will be easy in those conditions, but those like Kitayama who are facing Spyglass could be in for some particularly difficult stretches.

Draws

No one can question the Norwegian’s affinity for 17 Mile Drive. After capturing the 2018 U.S. Amateur here and following with low amateur honors at the U.S. Open the following summer, he has made the most of his time at the host course. Saturday (and Sunday) he’ll get another crack at Pebble Beach, and although he could face some gusty winds as part of the later wave of tee times, I trust his iron play on a course where you need to be dialed in. Plus, you can never underestimate the powerful motivation of a potential gold card at Chipotle. Hovland Under 70.5 (-125) in particular has my attention.

It’s not often you can win on TOUR with a triple bogey, but the Irishman is hoping to become the latest to overcome a big blunder. His issues came on the par-5 14th hole Thursday at Spyglass, and that triple was a big reason why he carded an even-par 72. But that opener still featured six birdies, and he fired a 7-under 64 Friday at Monterey. Power won earlier this season in Bermuda and has had success at cozy coastal venues like Mayakoba, so this is the type of course where he can find some success. Last year Power led by five shots at this juncture but faded to a T-9 finish. Given his recent form, +900 is a tempting price to get involved under the premise that he’s poised to reverse the narrative.

Fades

Lebioda is a great story, and my colleague Ben Everill did well to identify him as a worthy longshot before the week began. But like Kitayama, he’s now heading to the hardest of the three courses (Spyglass). The market seems to have a good read on the southpaw: despite being one shot off the lead, Lebioda is priced at +4000 and alongside defending champ Tom Hoge who is currently T-35. If you’ve got a triple-digit ticket on Lebioda from earlier in the week, there’s reason to hope you’ll have a sweat come Sunday. But now is not the time to invest if you haven’t already.

This is just regression to the mean. The wily veteran got every bounce Friday at Spyglass Hill, making an ace on the par-3 15th and catching a huge break off a hillside a few holes later. But the Englishman has battled consistency issues in recent months, and he played his final seven holes in 2 over. Even though he’s heading to Monterey, the markets have dropped his price (+1100) accordingly. That’s not enough to pique my interest given the fact that his 3-under 69 at Spyglass may have been more smoke and mirrors than the scorecard indicated.

*Odds sourced from BetMGM 9:00 p.m. Eastern Friday

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