Statistically Speaking: The RSM Classic

Opportunity knocks for short game wizards and first-time winners this week as the TOUR wraps up the 2022-2023 portion of the schedule on St. Simons Island, Georgia, at Sea Island Golf Club for The RSM Classic.

After a week of navigating the difficult Memorial Park municipal course in Houston the TOUR will exhale to end the 2022 grind on the resort courses of Sea Island. Birdies better be on shopping list before the holidays as scoring returns to the forefront again this week.

Barely stretching over 7,000 yards each, both Seaside (host) and Plantation will provide excellent scoring chances. As is usually the case with shorter courses, everyone is in with a shout when distance off the tee doesn't factor. Of the last seven winners, only Kevin Kisner has started inside a 40 to 1 chance pre-tournament.

Seaside's par-70 was run over last year with the course record 60 posted twice. The tournament scoring record (22-under) was also equaled. Plantation provides two extra par-5s on its par-72 layout. Each course will be used once before Seaside hosts the weekend.

The average winning score since the amalgamation is almost 20-under so rounds in the 60s will be the focus this week.

Large TifEagle Bermuda greens provide excellent targets for wedged approach shots. Once on the surface the pure and true greens rolling upwards of 13 feet have no problem accepting well-struck putts.

Sand and water frame the two courses and will cause a spot of bother if found. The good news is scoring opportunities abound so get up and down and move on.

Key Statistics

Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season.

Greens in Regulation

Less yardage on the scorecard means more loft on approach! Tons of fairways get hit here (and so do GIR) because less than driver can feature from the tee box. The last five winners and six from seven have all ranked in the top 10 for GIR. Even if the fairway is missed two inches of Bermuda shouldn't bother these guys. Big targets need to be hit to amass scoring chances!

Rounds in the 60s

Low scoring is paramount as the average winning score approaches 20-under. Going low can open the floodgates or increase the pressure. I'm looking for guys who embrace festivals of birdies.

Scrambling

Keeping bogeys off the card this week will take the pressure off of making birdie somewhere else. Of the last seven winners, six have ranked in the TOP FIVE in this category. Don't compound the error of missing big greens in regulation!

Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage

Big greens should equal GIR, right? Now, who's going to take advantage of those opportunities? Seaside is stingier on the greens than it appears, ranking in the top 15 annually in most difficult, but the winner will crack the code. Only one of the last seven winners has fallen outside of the top 17 and five were inside the top 10. Cash those chances!

The Bottom Line

It's easy to see why longshots have prevailed here. The door is open for all shapes and sizes this week. Keith Mitchell (Win: +2800; Top 10: +260; Top 20: +120) pops after a top 10 last week in Houston so he's on my radar as is Tom Hoge (Win: +2200; Top 10: +225; Top 20: +100) and Denny McCarthy (Win: +3300; Top 10: +260; Top 20: +130). I could even stretch for Davis Riley (Win: +4000; Top 10: +333; Top 20: +160). Good luck!

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