Draws & Fades: Scottie Scheffler sets up a second Masters title at Augusta National

He’s not first. But chances are he will be.

World No. 1 and betting favorite Scottie Scheffler took control of the Masters at Augusta National in a weather-delayed opening round, shooting a bogey-free 6-under 66 to become the man to beat.

Scheffler trailed only former U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau, who set the early pace with a clever 65, giving the duo a gap on the field when darkness halted play.

A two-and-a-half-hour weather delay thanks to heavy overnight rains meant 27 players failed to finish the first round and will return early Friday to continue.

European Ryder Cupper Nicolai Højgaard had made a late surge to be 5-under through 15 holes while Englishman Danny Willett, the 2016 champion, sat fourth after a 4-under 68.

Max Homa, who previously has been a non-factor at the Masters, sat nicely poised at 4-under through 13 holes.

Ryan Fox, Cam Davis and Tyrrell Hatton (through 14) shared sixth at 3-under.

Play returns at 7:50 a.m. local time to resume the opening round with the second round kicking off at 8 a.m. While the rains should be gone for the week, the wind will remain Friday.

“Winds of 15-20 gusting 25-30 mph will continue this evening before weakening to 12-15 gusting to 20-25 mph overnight,” the Masters weather report says. “Drier air will overspread the region early tomorrow morning allowing skies to clear before daybreak Friday morning.

“Slightly cooler and less humid conditions return Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. It will continue to be windy out of the west 15-20 gusting to 30 mph throughout the day. After a cool start Saturday morning, temperatures will rebound nicely this weekend with highs in the upper 70s Saturday and low to mid 80s on Sunday with plentiful sunshine.”

Scheffler’s second round isn’t due to start until 1:48p.m. local, but the winds are still expected to be an issue at that time, in fact they could be a little stronger in the afternoon. You can’t bank on this though as the gusts are forecast all day and many a Masters has come and gone when expected winds die off.

If there is an avenue to exploit betting wise, it is gambling on who of the players still on course might be able to climb up the leaderboard on their remaining holes.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +150: Scottie Scheffler (6-under, second)
• +600: Bryson DeChambeau (7-under, first)
• +1600: Rory McIlroy (1-under, T17)
• +1600: Max Homa (4-under thru 13, T4)
• +2200: Ludvig Åberg (2-under thru 11, T9)
• +2500: Brooks Koepka (E thru 11, T32)
• +2800: Joaquin Niemann (2-under, T9)
• +2800: Tyrrell Hatton (3-under thru 14, T6)
• +3000: Tommy Fleetwood (2-under thru 10, T9)
• +3300: Will Zalatoris (2-under, T9)
• +3300: Nicolai Højgaard (5-under thru 15, thirrd)

DRAWS

Scottie Scheffler (+150, second)

OK, look. I’m not about to tell you to go throw the house on a +150 proposition with 54 holes left to play but the reality is it will be strange if Scheffler does not win this tournament from here. He was his usual ball-striking self despite the winds and even when he looked in trouble – like in the back bunker on hole 12 – he duly chipped in. When it looked like he found Rae’s creek on 13, he stayed dry, and made birdie. With those breaks coming along with his sublime play that has seen him finish 1-1-2 in his last three starts, the 2022 Masters champion is clearly the man to beat.

Ludvig Åberg (+2200, T9)

The super Swede has a great chance to make a run up the leaderboard early Friday but there is a HUGE caveat. He must find dry land with his first swing of the day, which will come at the tough par-3 12th in possibly very tricky winds. The Masters and major championship rookie dodged the bullet of playing it in Thursday evenings swirling gusts but they could be there in the morning, along with cooler temperatures. If he gets through the 12th he can attack the par-5 13th and 15th holes and even the funnel pin on the par-3 16th to make a run.

Max Homa (+1600, T4)

Just like Åberg, Homa has a chance to make another birdie or two on the back nine when play resumes. If he can muster that, he will have the confidence to stretch it further in the second round. Having never bruised a grape in prior Masters appearances – a T43 last year his best result – Homa can bury the demons in one quick rush. He’s never shot in the 60s here before, if he can now, we could finally see the real Homa on the major scene. Of course, this could also be reason to fade him… which as it turns out, is a reason I’m fading others…

FADES

Bryson DeChambeau (+550, first)

As good as DeChambeau was on Thursday I can’t help but think it’s an outlier of a round given his history at Augusta National. His 65 was his career best in his 25th round on the storied course, besting a 66 he had to open in 2019. But it was just his fourth round in the 60s here, and even in 2019, where he was a co-leader after 18 holes, he bombed all the way back to T29 in the final washup. He hasn’t finished higher than T21, which he managed on debut as an amateur in 2016. He does have the benefit of not being due out for his second round for some time, perhaps getting a feel for the conditions by watching coverage.

Rory McIlroy (+1600, T17)

History shows you need to be in the top 11 at the completion of round one and its trending towards McIlroy not being there. With that, and the erratic rollercoaster golf he played Thursday (three bogeys, four birdies), plus the Grand Slam pressure on his shoulders… I need to see much higher odds for a win. You could see him make another run to a backdoor top five though…