Benny and the Bets: Finding ‘mudders’ ahead of rain-soaked Wyndham Championship

Strokes Gained: Mudder.

While this is not an official PGA TOUR stat, it is one we have to figure out ahead of the pivotal Wyndham Championship.

With a diabolical rain forecast ahead of us at Sedgefield Country Club there are already whispers of potential delays and extensions into next week as we try to solidify who gets into the FedExCup Playoffs.

There is currently a flash flood watch until 9 p.m. ET Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby lash North Carolina with the forecast as follows.

“The chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase Wednesday as tropical storm Debby slowly begins to move northward along the South Carolina coast. Debby is expected to move inland Thursday and continue northward through central North Carolina Friday,” PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams reports.

“This will increase chances for rain and a few thunderstorms Thursday with showers and thunderstorms continuing Friday. Heavy rain will be likely at times with rainfall amounts averaging 4.00” to 6.00” before the system pulls away Saturday with improving conditions. Mostly sunny skies return Sunday with highs in the mid-80s.”

And so, as we look to find some value in the betting markets, shouldn’t we look to those who have performed well in wet conditions previously? It only makes sense.

Go to any racetrack in the world and you’ll find an old guy with a form guide who has been part of the furniture for decades. When it rains, he knows he needs to look beyond the usual numbers and find the mudder.

We need to apply the same principles to golf.

So far in the 2024 season, there have been 12 events with some form of wet weather impact. From the Farmers Insurance Open, when record flooding hit San Diego in the lead-up in January, to the recent Open Championship which saw competitors thrashed with rain flurries throughout and others in between we can get at least some gauge on who hasn’t let the mud ruin their week.

In 10 of the events, preferred lies were in play for at least one of the four rounds, a situation almost inevitable this week. The Masters and The Open played the ball down despite wet conditions.

In a revelation that will surprise no one, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and The Open Championship winner Xander Schauffele have the most top-10s in the rain-affected tournaments with five each.

But neither of those stars are in the field at Sedgefield Country Club. One other player joined them on five wet weather top-10s. And he IS in the mix and still chasing a maiden TOUR win.

Cameron Young (+2800) picked up top-10 results at the WM Phoenix Open, the Valspar Championship, the Masters, the Travelers Championship and the Rocket Mortgage Classic – all but the Masters had preferred lies at some point but it was also softened by heavy pre-tournament rain. He sits 20th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green and has college ties to the area via his time at Wake Forest.

Five players, including three in the field, have three top-10s in the slop. While Ludvig Åberg and Taylor Pendrith aren’t in North Carolina this week, the other three are. One is a favorite, one is more mid-tier, while the last could be the ultimate sleeper.

Tournament betting favorite Sungjae Im (+1400) now has another reason to be on your betting radar, having finished T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship, T3 at the Travelers Championship and T7 at the Open Championship. His last four starts in general are all inside the top 12 and his last five Wyndham Championship starts are all T24 or better with three top-10s. He becomes a must-consider.

If you aren’t a fan of betting the favorite, then what about Englishman Aaron Rai (+3500). Three of his five season top-10s came on wet tracks and he ranks third on TOUR in Driving Accuracy, a key stat this week given four of the last five winners here ranked inside the top four of this metric on way to victory.

Lastly, another player with three rain-affected top-10s this season is longshot Hayden Springer (+15000). Interestingly they are his only top-10s and two of them came this summer. Is this guy a rain specialist? He’s 21st on TOUR in Total Driving, ninth in Driving Distance, but also fifth on TOUR on approaches inside 100-yards. He leads the TOUR in proximity from the rough. While a win might be beyond the 27-year-old this week, a high finish to secure his playing privileges for next season might be in the cards. He’s +1200 for a Top 10 and +550 for a Top 20.

Our research has picked up 21 players who have two rain-affected top-10s this season with nine of those in the field this week. Once again, we have a mix of some chalkier players with some longer shots.

Shane Lowry (+2500), Akshay Bhatia (+3500), Davis Thompson (+3500), Luke Clanton (+5000), Denny McCarthy (+5500), Eric Cole (+6000), Andrew Novak (+8000), Mackenzie Hughes (+8000) and Ben Kohles (+10000)have all shown an ability to play well when things get wet this season.

Lowry has made the dash back from the Olympics which could be a concern, but he counters that by being Irish and as such more than used to tough weather!

Interestingly Bhatia, Cole and Hughes had already made slots on the Golfbet Expert Picks radar before this wet weather research was included. This just gives more reason to look at them, particularly in place markets.

Quite a few more from this field have logged one previous wet weather top-10 this season should that be enough to sway you, but in my book only form in the most recent rain event – The Open Championship – would be enough.

This includes my outright pick of Billy Horschel (+2500) who was T2 at Royal Troon but who also has multiple high finishes at Sedgefield in the past. Justin Rose (+5500) also fits this narrative of their only wet weather top-10 coming at the recent Open.

I’ll leave you with one more nugget to consider when betting at the Wyndham Championship. Hole Nos. 10, 11 and 12 have played over par since 2018 and hole 14 is the hardest on the course and was the 23rd hardest on TOUR last season.

With this in mind, if your outright selection is due to tee off in the opening round off the 10th tee it would be prudent to wait for them to play their first five holes BEFORE placing your bet. Chances are they will start slowly compared to those playing on the front nine, which has played under par each year.

Young, Im, Bhatia, Lowry, Spieth, Zalatoris and Rose are all part of the opening round featured groups starting on the 10th. If you want a chance at a little more juice, perhaps ride out those opening moments first.

Multiple rain affected top 10s in 2024

*Bold players in Wyndham field

• 5: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young
• 3: Hayden Springer, Aaron Rai, Sungjae Im, Taylor Pendrith, Ludvig Åberg
• 2: Akshay Bhatia, Shane Lowry, Eric Cole, Luke Clanton,Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Novak, Ben Kohles,Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy, Max Homa, Matthieu Pavon, Jake Knapp, Byeong Hun An, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Tom Hoge, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Sam Burns and Russell Henley.

Benny's betting card

• Outrights: Billy Horschel +2500; Sungjae Im +1400
• Top 5: Cameron Young +550
• Top 10: Aaron Rai +350
• Top 20: Eric Cole +260
• Top 40: Hayden Springer +200

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