Bolton: Embrace variables in year’s final major

Every golf tournament delivers an array of unexpected outcomes, but there truly are only two that preside over the rest on the list of expected crapshoots – THE PLAYERS Championship and The Open Championship – and for different reasons.

Yes, Scottie Scheffler achieved what no one ever had in successfully defending his title at TPC Sawgrass four months ago, but the course usually wins the PGA TOUR’s flagship event. Ask most of the others in the field and they’d agree. The margin for error on Pete Dye’s dastardly design is closer to zero there than anywhere else.

While weather can disrupt THE PLAYERS, it’s not a staple of the tournament’s identity like it is at The Open no matter where it’s contested.

Both premier events are bad choices for any first-time bettor because the value of the lessons learned is felt only in the context of comparison to others. A rookie better won’t know the difference between good and bad luck in either, whereas a veteran knows that bad luck isn’t your fault just as much good luck isn’t within your control.

My No. 1 rule for playing fantasy is to have fun. That crosses over in every way this week, because it has to. If you don’t embrace it, then you’re missing the point of The Open Championship. Get lucky and move on but enjoy this outlier of an experience no matter how you fare.

Lastly, and firstly, really, this is a reminder that Royal Troon is five hours ahead of Eastern Time in the United States. The first threesome in the first round will go off at 6:35 a.m. on Thursday local time. That’s 1:35 a.m. on the East Coast of the U.S., 10:35 p.m. on Wednesday on the West Coast and 7:35 p.m. on Wednesday in Hawaii.

Weather

The Open Championship

The only analysis relevant is, “Good luck.” It’s The Open, so Mother Nature will factor and unpredictably at that. Your objective is to remain patient with the advance knowledge that what looks good fails more often in this tournament than any other because of what no one controls.

Because wind likely will impact a pretty good portion of the field, live betting is the shrewder approach for your units. Another pro tip is not to hesitate to go hard at Top 10s and other attractive values in place markets after the first round with your favorites for whom weather in the second round seems unfavorable. Remember, the houses can’t control the weather, either. Contrarianism is thrown a bone this week.

Barracuda Championship

If scoring for each wave is identical after two rounds, don’t be surprised. Customarily beautiful weather is expected throughout. Wind will freshen with daytime heating. Quite simply, like the best officials, referees, umpires and judges in the sport of your choosing, you’ll never be cognizant about the weather at Old Greenwood.

Power Rankings wild card

Viktor Hovland (+275 = Top 10) … My narrative hasn’t wavered since he took the break after the Masters. The reset was at a perfect time and the results since have proved that he didn’t waste it. The only top 10 in the interim was a solo third at the PGA Championship, but that was in his second start after the mini-sabbatical.

With a T4 (2022) and another pair of top 15s in three Open appearances, and with four sub-70s at the Genesis Scottish Open last week – albeit for a mere T46 – the angle now is to lean into his body of work and firepower. The market is respectful, so even it doesn’t consider this a reach.

Other notables

Tiger Woods (+220 = Make the Cut) … Did you ever think that you’d see the day for plus value simply to make the cut? Of course, this has been his theme for a bit now, but it’s still surreal because he plays infrequently. It’s a jolt despite his familiarity. The Open is different and no one in the field possesses the kind of magic that he can conjure on the links. It gives him a stage to showcase his imagination and course management. The real wild card will be his putter, which was the case in the previous two majors in which he missed the cut but also where there were many other reasons to believe that golfers of a certain age wouldn’t have as much of an edge.

Tom Kim (+350 = Top 10) … No fear on the links and he’s recently recaptured his mojo with a pair of top-four finishes ahead of last week’s T15 at The Renaissance Club. If you’re not familiar with my philosophy, I start my work with a top 10 in mind. That’s the expectation. Top fives are bonuses that require a little luck, while victories are reasons for celebration. So, in lieu of endorsing a top five at +700, the suggestion is merely to multiply the units for this target.

Cameron Young (+400 = Top 10) … Because of the converging trends alone, this likely is a popular sentiment across the landscape, but he’s earned the faith. Solo second (2022) and T8 (2023) in two Opens and top 10s in his last two starts. The T9 at the Travelers Championship included a third-round 59, while his close for a T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was a case study for a guy who’s still learning how to capture victory on the PGA TOUR. He’s stronger as a result and he’s rested since.

Brooks Koepka (+140 = Top 20) … Distilling it down, we just have to trust him. He’s gone four straight majors without a top 25, but he’s also a five-time major champion across the last eight years. What’s more, he has four top 10s in The Open, which spills into the handy reminder that he cut his teeth on the DP World Tour on which challenges like this week’s occurred more frequently than they do for PGA TOUR members. In full disclosure, he was my last cut from the Power Rankings, so I’m pleased about this kickback for what always should be a baseline expectation for him when the lights are brightest.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Corey Conners, Brian Harman and Adam Scott (+160 = All to Make the Cut)
• PARLAY: Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim and Robert MacIntyre (+125 = All to Make the Cut)
• Ernie Els (+500 = Top 40)
• Emiliano Grillo (+250 = Top 40)
• Rasmus Højgaard (+140 = Top 40)
• Matthew Jordan (+200 = Top 40)
• Si Woo Kim (+115 = Top 40)
• Matthieu Pavon (+160 = Top French)
• Victor Perez (+500 = Top 20)

Returning to competition

The Open Championship

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout … Shortly after walking off The Renaissance Club after opening his second round double bogey-triple bogey, he shared with followers on Instagram that he suffered discomfort in a wrist on a shot in a bunker (on the par-4 2nd hole). The South African is poised to represent his country in the Olympics, so there’s considerably important competition straight ahead. Although this is The Open, he’s 22nd in the FedExCup, so he can nurse his health accordingly in favor of targets further down the road. Despite how lucrative he’s been all year; this is a good week to abstain.
• Vincent Norrman … An illness that bounced him from the Genesis Scottish Open during his second round was the latest setback in a season devoid of a top-30 finish. The bright side is that he’s fully exempt in the winners category through 2025, so he can continue to focus on weekly objectives. This will be his debut in The Open, so the absence of pressure to keep his job in the long-term is a blessing.

Barracuda Championship

• K.H. Lee … Called it quits with four holes to go in his second round of the Genesis Scottish Open with a sore back. He was 7-over at the time and wasn’t going to make the cut, anyway. He’s 2-for-2 at Old Greenwood but he didn’t compete in the last three editions and he’s lacked spark for months. At 107th in the FedExCup and not yet fully exempt for 2025.

Notable withdraws at Barracuda Championship

Pierceson Coody … The consolation prize for his playoff loss at the ISCO Championship is a rise of 17 spots to 114th in the FedExCup. While a Playoffs berth is a longshot, he’s now in position to manage playing time in targeting the top 125 at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall.

Erik van Rooyen … This bummed out investors and gamers everywhere. He prevailed at Old Greenwood in 2021 and added a T6 last year. However, he’s 55th in the FedExCup, so he’s a virtual lock for the Playoffs. He’s also qualified for the Olympics in Paris, so the rest after at T39 at the Genesis Scottish Open is sensible.

Chris Gotterup … Since breaking through at the Myrtle Beach Classic, he’s just 2-for-7 and without a top 60. At 92nd in the FedExCup, he’ll need to reverse course immediately to qualify for the Playoffs.

Jimmy Stanger … In his recovery and return from golfer’s elbow in his right arm, he had planned on playing four straight beginning with the John Deere Classic, but he withdrew before his second round and didn’t commit to last week’s ISCO Championship. Suffice it to say that the body isn’t responding as positively as he had hoped. At 127th in the FedExCup, he faces careful decisions about forcing it to target the top 125 or perhaps rest indefinitely to qualify for a medical extension in 2025. Whatever the case, set him free in drop-add leagues if you already haven’t.

Harrison Endycott … Extended his skid to 0-for-5 with a mid-tournament withdrawal due to an illness last week. Sits 193rd in the FedExCup.

Richy Werenski … Captured his only PGA TOUR title at Old Greenwood in 2020. This is the first edition at the course that he’s skipping but it’s for a logical reason. He’s saddled with Past Champion status on the PGA TOUR but he’s 50th in points on the Korn Ferry Tour where he’s chasing a return to fully exempt status in the big leagues. You can follow the 32-year-old’s progress at this week’s Price Cutter Charity Championship presented by Dr Pepper.

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